Alexandria Southwest Quadrant/Route One South Analysis

City of Alexandria, VA

BAE performed an analysis of 10 potential redevelopment sites in the Southwest Quadrant/Route One South Planning Area, sometimes referred to as Old Town West, for the City of Alexandria.

The analysis focused on the redevelopment potential of the sites for a range of residential uses and intensities. A key objective of BAE’s analysis was to determine if sites could be redeveloped in the private market to a higher intensity than exists presently, could there be enough residual land value to help Alexandria retain and increase affordable housing units in the study area.

Through a pro forma analysis, BAE evaluated study area and regional market conditions and the feasibility of market rate residential development at four different redevelopment intensities—high, medium, and low density and existing zoning—for each of the ten sites. BAE researched available market data to make cost and revenue assumptions factoring in market conditions including area development trends, rental rates, sales prices, vacancy, absorption, and employment and economic conditions. Key findings of the analysis include:

• 13 of 40 development scenarios tested would be financially feasible in the short term (within two years)
• Scenarios on larger sites at the highest density, with more multifamily units, are most likely to be feasible
• The high cost of undergrounding utilities and providing subterranean parking would prevent scenarios on some sites from being feasible.

Findings from BAE’s analysis are to be used in the planning process and subsequent Small Area Plan amendment for the Southwest/Route One Planning Area.