Impacts of Big Box Stores on Community Retail

More Than 50 U.S. Cities

BAE has completed numerous studies assessing the impacts of proposed "big box" retail stores such as Target, Walmart, and Home Depot on local communities. The studies carefully define the trade area to be affected through detailed, on-the-ground observation and interviews with merchants and local city staff regarding existing trade area geographic dimensions. Our studies then estimate current and potential future demand for the goods provided by the proposed project, evaluate the likely capture of this demand by the new big box store, estimate sales losses or gains at existing retailers over time, and conclude with an evaluation of how these changes will affect the viability of existing retailers. These studies may also assess job and wage-related impacts and fiscal impacts where changes in tax revenues must be considered in tandem with costs of service provision to the proposed project. In California, these studies often take the form of "urban decay" impact assessments due to a series of court decisions linking the issue to the California Environmental Quality Act (CEQA).

BAE's studies are notable for their high quality, transparent methodologies, clear assumptions, and neutral approach to this issue. We typically work for the local government body, rather than for the sponsor of the project, ensuring a reliable, balanced work product. For the California studies, the legal framework requires translating these findings into potential for long-term store closures that could conceivably result in physical decline of the vacant properties and result in blight or urban decay. Most of BAE's CEQA-related California studies have been reviewed by the courts; in all of these cases, BAE’s studies have been accepted by review judges.